3月12日，加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森预测中心（UCLA Anderson Forecast）的经济学家们发表了修订后的经济预测：美国经济已进入衰退期，结束了从2009年7月开始的经济增长。

The revised forecast, which incorporates data reflecting a rapidly changing U.S. economy, together with a review of the 1957–58 H2N2 influenza pandemic, is for the recession to continue through the end of September.

修订后的预测包括反映美国经济迅速变化的数据，以及对1957-58年H2N2流感大流行的回顾，并预计此次衰退将持续到9月底。

This marks the first time in its 68-year history that the UCLA Anderson Forecast has published an updated forecast between its regularly scheduled quarterly releases.

这是加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森预测中心68年历史上，首次在定期发布的季度报告之间临时发布最新预测。

After the economy had experienced a solid start to 2020, the escalating effects of the coronavirus pandemic in March have reduced the first-quarter 2020 forecast of GDP growth to 0.4%. GDP for the second quarter of the year is now forecast to slow by 6.5%, and by 1.9% for the third quarter. With the assumption of an end to the pandemic and repaired supply chains by this summer, the Forecast predicts the resumption of normal activity in the fourth quarter of 2020 and a GDP growth rate of 4.0%.

当经济到2020年经历了一个坚实的开端之后，3月份冠状病毒大流行不断升级，开始对经济造成影响，预计2020年第一季度的GDP增长下降到0.4%。第二季度的GDP预计将放缓6.5%，第三季度将放缓1.9%。假定大流行将于今年夏天结束并修复供应链，预计到2020年第四季度经济活动将恢复正常，GDP增长率为4.0%。

For the full 2020 year, it is expected that GDP will have declined by 0.4%. In 2021, with the abatement of governmental pandemic expenditures and the continued contraction of residential and commercial construction, the economy is forecast to grow at 1.5%. The full recovery and return to trend is now expected in 2022.

整个2020年预计GDP将下降0.4%。到2021年，随着政府流行病财政支出的减少以及住宅市场和商业建设的持续收缩，经济预计将增长1.5%。全面复苏和回归趋势目前预计在2022年。

Recession expected to be more severe in California than for nation overall

预计加州的经济衰退将比全国整体更为严重

For California, a state with a larger proportion of economic activity in tourism and trans-Pacific transportation, the economic downturn will be slightly more severe. Employment is expected to contract by 0.7% in 2020 with employment contracting during the second and third quarters at an annual rate of 2.6%. The state's unemployment rate will rise to 6.3% by the end of this year and is expected to continue to increase into 2021 with an average for 2021 of 6.6%. By the first quarter of 2021, California is expected to lose more than 280,000 payroll jobs with more than one-third of those in the leisure and hospitality and transportation and warehousing sectors.

加州的经济活动在旅游业和跨太平洋运输中所占的比例更大，对它来说，经济下滑的程度会稍微严重一些。预计2020年就业将收缩0.7%，第二、三季度就业将减少2.6%。到今年年底，加州的失业率将升至6.3%，预计到2021年将继续上升，2021年的平均失业率为6.6%。预计到2021年第一季度，加州将失去28万个以上的就业岗位，其中三分之一以上在休闲和招待以及运输和仓储部门。

The revised forecast comes with an important caveat. If the pandemic is much worse than assumed, this forecast will be too optimistic. If the pandemic abates quickly because of the extraordinary measures being put into place to address it, an outcome that the medical community thinks unlikely but possible, then the forecast will be too pessimistic and economic growth in the third and fourth quarters of the year will be higher.

修订后的预测有一个重要的警告。如果冠状病毒大流行比预期严重得多，这种预测就过于乐观了。如果由于采取了非常措施来应对疫情，导致大流行迅速消退(医学界认为这种结果不太可能，但却是可能的)，那么预测结果将过于悲观，今年第三和第四季度的经济增长将会更高。

UCLA Anderson Forecast is one of the most widely watched and often-cited economic outlooks for California and the nation and was unique in predicting both the seriousness of the early-1990s downturn in California and the strength of the state’s rebound since 1993. More recently, the Forecast was credited as the first major U.S. economic forecasting group to declare the recession of 2001.

加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森预测中心是最受关注和经常被引用的加州及全美经济预测中心，在预测加州90年代早期经济衰退的严重性和加州自1993年以来经济复苏的力度方面，它是独一无二的。最近，该预测中心被认为是美国第一个宣布2001年经济衰退的主要经济预测机构。