Beer is the world’s most popular alcoholic beverage by volume consumed. But, according to study co-author Steven Davis, UC Irvine associate professor of Earth system science, “future climate and pricing conditions could put beer out of reach for hundreds of millions of people around the world.”

按消费量计算，啤酒是世界上最受欢迎的酒精饮料。但是，根据研究的合著者，加州大学欧文分校地球系统科学副教授史蒂文戴维斯（Steven Davis）说，“未来的气候和价格条件可能会让世界上数亿人买不起啤酒。”

There's a tear in our beer.

眼泪就是我们的啤酒。

On top of rising sea levels, stronger hurricanes and worsening wildfires, scientists project that human-caused climate change will result in one of the most dire consequences imaginable: a disruption in the global beer supply.

除了海平面上升、飓风加剧和野火恶化之外，科学家们预测，人为造成的气候变化将导致最可怕的后果之一：全球啤酒供应中断。

“The world is facing many life-threatening impacts of climate change, so people having to spend a bit more to drink beer may seem trivial by comparison,” said co-author Steven Davis, UC Irvine associate professor of Earth system science. “But there is definitely a cross-cultural appeal to beer, and not having a cool pint at the end of an increasingly common hot day just adds insult to injury.”

加州大学欧文分校地球系统科学副教授史蒂文戴维斯（Steven Davis）说：“世界正面临着气候变化带来的许多危及生命的影响，因此人们不得不花更多的钱这件事来喝啤酒似乎显得微不足道，但啤酒无疑具有跨文化的吸引力，当日渐炎热的一天结束时不喝一品脱冰爽啤酒只会增加伤害。”

He said the research team modeled scenarios based on current and expected future levels of fossil fuel burning and carbon dioxide emissions. In the worst case, parts of the world where barley is grown — including the northern Great Plains, Canadian prairies, Europe, Australia and the Asian steppe — were projected to experience more frequent concurrent droughts and heat waves, causing declines in crop yields of 3 to 17 percent.

他说，该研究小组根据目前和预期的化石燃料燃烧和二氧化碳排放水平对情景进行了建模。最糟糕的情况，世界上种植大麦的地区-包括大平原北部、加拿大草原、欧洲、澳大利亚和亚洲草原-预计会遭遇更频繁的干旱和热浪，导致作物产量下降3%至17%。

“Current levels of fossil fuel consumption and CO2 pollution — business as usual — will result in this worst-case scenario, with more weather extremes negatively impacting the world’s beer basket,” said co-author Nathan Mueller, UC Irvine assistant professor of Earth system science. “Our study showed that even modest warming will lead to increases in drought and excessive heat events in barley-growing areas.”

加州大学欧文分校地球系统科学副教授内森·穆勒（Nathan Mueller）说：“目前化石燃料消耗和二氧化碳污染的水平—如一切照旧—将导致这种最坏的情况，更多的极端天气会对世界啤酒篮产生负面影响。我们的研究表明，即使是温和的气候变暖，也会导致大麦种植区干旱和高温事件的增加。”

Beer could be out of reach for hundreds of millions    

数以百万计的人都无法买到啤酒

Only 17 percent of the globe’s barley is used in brewing; in fact, most is harvested as feed for livestock. This sets up a conflict in the decades to come: Will producers prioritize hungry animals over thirsty humans? Inputting a decline in barley supply into their computable general equilibrium model, the researchers consistently found that the ratio of the grain going to beer brewing decreased even more.

全球只有17%的大麦用于酿造；事实上，收获的大部分大麦是作为牲畜饲料。这将在未来几十年引发一场冲突：生产者会优先考虑饥饿的动物而不是口渴的人类吗？将大麦供应量的下降输入到可计算的一般均衡模型中，研究人员均发现，用于啤酒酿造的谷物比例下降得更多。

The study further outlines how different regions of the world will be affected, determining that prices will go up the most in such wealthy, beer-loving countries as Belgium, Canada, Denmark and Poland. For example, Davis said, during drought years, residents of Ireland could need to bring the equivalent of an extra $20 to the store to buy a six-pack. But he noted that some people in these nations will be willing to absorb the higher cost.

该研究进一步概述了世界不同地区将受到何种影响，确定比利时、加拿大、丹麦和波兰等富裕、喜喝啤酒的国家，他们的啤酒价格上涨幅度最大。戴维斯说，例如，在干旱的年代，爱尔兰居民可能需要带额外的相当于20美元的钱才能买到6提。但他指出，这些国家的有些人愿意承担更高的成本。

Beer consumption is predicted to go down in poorer countries, such as China, and Davis joked that even the United States might see a drop-off in keg stands and beer pong tournaments in the future.

在中国等较贫穷的国家，啤酒消费量预计会下降，戴维斯开玩笑说，就连美国也可能预见在未来桶架和啤酒乒乓锦标赛的下滑。

“Our results show that in the most severe climate events, the supply of beer could decline by about 16 percent in years when droughts and heat waves strike,” he said. “That’s comparable to all beer consumption in the U.S. Future climate and pricing conditions could put beer out of reach for hundreds of millions of people around the world.”

他说：“我们的结果显示，在最严重的气候事件中，当干旱和热浪来袭时，啤酒的供应量可能会减少16%。这相当于美国所有啤酒的消费量。未来的气候和价格条件可能会让全球数亿人买不起啤酒。”

Scientists from China’s Peking University, the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Mexico’s International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, and the U.K.’s University of East Anglia also contributed to the study, which received support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the U.S. National Science Foundation.

来自中国北京大学、中国农业科学院、墨西哥国际玉米和小麦改良中心以及英国东安格利亚大学的科学家也参与了这项研究，这项研究得到了中国国家自然科学基金和美国国家科学基金会的支持。